Istanbul Earthquake Will Be Magnitude 7 And Expected Anytime
PROF. DR. AHMET ERCAN, EXPLANATIONS MADE ABOUT THE ASSESSMENTS. WE ARE NOW PLAYING EXTENSIONS, 250 THOUSAND PEOPLE ARE IN DANGER.
Recently, Erzincan-Karliova, Celikhan-Erkenek, Kahramanmaras and Izmir are expected to be large earthquakes. Dr. sees, for the Istanbul earthquake, an earthquake above 7 may occur at any moment, he said. "We are facing 250 thousand people in danger in Istanbul. The probability of an earthquake greater than 7 is 64 percent at any moment. We're playing extensions, " he said.
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IN GENERAL, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE 4 THOUSAND-YEAR EARTHQUAKE HISTORY, THE USUAL LARGE EARTHQUAKES OF ISTANBUL ARE DESTRUCTIVE
- Ercan said that there is no history of the Istanbul earthquake, “earthquake warnings in Istanbul since 1999 ‘happens in 3 days’, 3 days ‘will be in 3 Months’, 3 months ‘will be in 1 year’, 1 year ‘will be in 3 years’, then ’will be in 10 years’. And we have come to 2020, the last coming ‘it will happen in 4 years’, ‘it will happen in 2018’. It's been 21 years since the earthquake. The expected earthquake did not happen. Now, as it will be in 2024, it can happen at any moment, it can happen in 2029, again predictions that are not based on the scientific base are being made. And none of those who made these predictions are geophysical engineers. Because Geophysical engineers make earthquake predictions. And these are in the press. Actually, this is a great misfortune. Because a fear is being pumped into people, which has no scientific basis,” he said.
ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE WILL BE MAGNITUDE 7 STRENGTH
Geophysical Engineer Prof. Dr. Ercan, Istanbul will occur in a possible earthquake magnitude 7 expressed, said:
- In general, when we look at the 4 thousand-year earthquake history, the magnitude of the usual large earthquake of Istanbul is approximately 7. It is necessary to evaluate this as Northern Marmara or as full Marmara.
- Because no matter where the earthquake occurs in Marmara, it has a devastating effect in an area with a radius of 100 kilometers. The arrival of the word was a 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Gölcük, the destructive force of this earthquake in Gölcük was 11. But the demolition force at the Hunters was about 9 and destroyed the structures.
- The distance of hunters from Gölcük was 100 kilometers. An earthquake occurred in Gölcük, about 120 kilometers from there in Adapazarı had a deadly effect. But the earthquake didn't happen there.
- As in the last Izmir earthquake, the earthquake happened in Samos with a magnitude of 7, came 78 kilometers ahead of Izmir, which destroyed Bayrakli. So an earthquake doesn't necessarily have to be where you are, to have your house destroyed or in danger.
- Therefore, an earthquake that will be at least 100 kilometers ahead of you in the Marmara region is your earthquake. Therefore, the great Istanbul earthquake, the great Tekirdağ earthquake are the earthquakes of Kocaeli, Yalova, Bursa, Mudanya, Gemlik, Bandırma, Balıkesir, Canakkale, Tekirdağ. That's how you have to perceive it.
- In other words, the expectation should be an expectation of destruction not only for Istanbul and Tekirdag, but also for the entire environment of Marmara. What's so important about that? No place in Turkey has as dense a population as it is around Marmara.
- In addition, about 2,568 people per square kilometer fall in Istanbul. When we look at the average of Marmara, about 500 people per square kilometer fall.
- When we look at the average of Turkey, 86 people. So the number of people sitting in the unit area, the number of houses in the unit area is very dense in Marmara.
- Istanbul is the busiest place. The cut where Izmit is located, that is, the densities in the unit area. The greater the density in the unit area, the greater the destruction.
EARTHQUAKES GREATER THAN 7.2 OCCUR EVERY 570 YEARS
A professor who said that an earthquake of about 6.2 magnitude occurs in Marmara every 30 years Dr. Ahmet Ercan, used the following statements:
- Again, there is an earthquake in Marmara every 104 years between 6.3 and 6.7. Earthquakes greater than 7.2 in Marmara occur approximately every 570 years.
- Therefore, the probability that an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude that we saw in Gölcük will repeat in Marmara is almost minimal. For this reason, saying that an earthquake of 7.6 is expected in Marmara has no relation to the earthquake behavior of 4 thousand-year-old Marmara.
- However, if there was an earthquake greater than 7 in Marmara, neither Hagia Sophia would survive on today's Eminönü peninsula, nor Kızkulesi would survive, nor Bozdagan Valens belt would survive, nor Suleymaniye Mosque, nor Fatih mosque, nor Beyazit mosque, nor Sultanahmet Mosque, none of the ancient artifacts would survive.
- However, all of these are standing, including the walls of Istanbul. These are witnesses to earthquakes.
- This means that there have not been very large earthquakes in the part of Istanbul. Why didn't it happen in Istanbul? Because there is a magma approach that is about 2 kilometers thick.
- In the exact location of the Istanbul Strait and in the section where Surici is located, the fracture resistance of the Earth's crust is greater than 6 billion cigatons.
- That is why in the 99 earthquake, the fracture started from Gölcük on one side and went to Kaşlı on the other side, starting from Gölcük and going through Karamürsel to Yalova, from there to Çınarcık, from there to Esenköy. And a branch came out of it. Like a honey bone.
- One of them broke from the north of the Çınarcık pit to Sivriada, and a branch again came out of this main tributary and broke through Tuzla to Pendik, Kartal, from there to Maltepe, from there to Bostanlı. The islands are right between them.
- If it had continued, this break would have entered Kasr from the Fenerbahce Cape on the one hand, it would have broken in an east-west direction from the section where it was located to Sarayburnu, and on the other hand, it would have broken in front of the hunters, turning right in front of the Küçükçekmece.
The main reason it can't Go is that the Earth's crust is very resistant to breakage right in front of Istanbul. So he couldn't continue, he stayed there.
MARMARA REGION IS VERY TIRED RIGHT NOW
- In order to break this place, he needs to accumulate tension again. That accumulation of tension changes depending on the rate at which tension from the East accumulates each year.
- Here, when I look at an algorithm that I call the Ercan algorithm, it is necessary to wait until at least 2045 for this tension to accumulate, that is, to reach 6 billion cigatons and develop and break this shell.
- If there is a uniform distribution. If this build-up of tension is not enough, the earthquake may be delayed until 2075. For 21 years, someone has been saying that there can be an earthquake at any moment, but for 21 years, I have been saying, ‘No, there can't be an earthquake at any moment, there is not enough power to be gathered’. Time always confirmed me. Time has misled many.
- Maybe our friends from here mean to make an earthquake warning. But making a false earthquake warning would shake the country's economy, not invest in that country.
- Domestic investors in this country also shift their investments to different places such as Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Russia. So the country's economy is affected. The country is also affected by tourism
WE MUST NOT DEAL A BLOW TO THE ECONOMY IN TURKEY
There was a 7-magnitude earthquake in Samos the Greeks did not say that there was an earthquake in Greece. But immediately we took care of it, although we did not have the earthquake, we called it the Izmir earthquake. However, there was no earthquake in Izmir.
- In other words, it is necessary to adjust the scale of someone well when talking a little, not to make society neurotic and not to hit the economy. Earthquake scientists need to be more measured.
- Earthquake is not a topic that will be the subject of television and newspapers. Because earthquake changes occur for at least 10 years to 100 - 200 years.
- But Earthquake News or earthquake forecasts in Turkey are not based on scientific bases, we call it Hissikablelvuku. I speak Turkish like that. Because what is said is wrong, there is no responsibility for anything described.
- In order for a person in Turkey to be able to make an earthquake prediction, he must be a geophysical engineer and have taken an earthquake science course. None of those who say that a big earthquake is coming are geophysical engineers, unfortunately
ISTANBUL TURKEY NEEDS TO BE PREPARED
Ercan, who stated that a lot of things have been done about the earthquake in Turkey in the last 21 years, said: “What do you need to do? Istanbul needs to be prepared. Now there is no need to say that the big earthquake is coming to prepare Istanbul. A lot has been done in 21 years. A lot has been done not only in Istanbul, but also in many cities of Turkey. One out of every 5 structures is destroyed by a problem from the ground, one out of every 5 structures and 4 of them are destroyed due to bad structures. By taking only the core from the structure or by making only strengthening measures for the structure, this structure cannot be protected from an earthquake. Both the ground and the structure need to be strengthened.
THERE ARE 1 MILLION 800 THOUSAND PROPERTY STRUCTURES IN ISTANBUL
Istanbul is bigger than many European cities. For this reason, unfortunately, there is no possibility of suddenly strengthening the structures in Istanbul by putting such a magic wand in such a way. Gradually within the meaning of urban transformation of this work, construction, Geophysical engineers, architects, urban planners need to come together and make healthy, safe breakthroughs both in terms of location and in terms of qualified construction,” he said.
EARTHQUAKES REPORT PREPARED FOR EACH ISTANBUL MUNICIPALITY
- The earthquake and ground Investigation Directorate of the Department of Earthquake Risk Management and Urban Improvement has privatized the outputs of this project.
- Analyses and maps were made specifically for the districts and “possible earthquake loss estimate booklets” were produced for 39 districts of Istanbul.
- Components such as building damage, possible casualties and injuries, infrastructure damage and the need for temporary housing were analyzed and reported in districts and neighborhoods in a possible earthquake.
ORIGINAL EARTHQUAKES PROBLEMS WERE DIAGNOSED IN EACH COUNTY
- Through the study, unique problems were diagnosed in each county. The extent of the damage and casualties caused by a devastating earthquake that could have an impact across Istanbul has been revealed.
- In the booklet, with an overview of districts, buildings, infrastructure, and Population Information; and scenario analysis generated as a result of earthquakes, the calculated strong ground motion parameters calculated based on the number of possible damaged buildings, the number of possible casualties and wounded with their spatial distribution; natural gas, drinking water and waste water networks in need of temporary shelter and possible damage that may occur in the information included.
MODERATE AND ABOVE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR IN HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF BUILDINGS
- The booklets pointed out the extent of building damage and temporary housing needs that would occur in a possible Istanbul earthquake.
- Arnavutköy 2 thousand, Ataşehir 3 thousand, Bağcılar 10 thousand, Bakırköy 6 thousand, Beyoğlu 4 thousand 200, Büyükçekmece 9 thousand, Çatalca 2 thousand, Esenler 5 thousand, Fatih 15 thousand, Kağıthane 2 thousand, Kartal 4 thousand, Küçükçekmece 13 thousand, Sancaktepe 3 thousand, Silivri 9 thousand, Sultanbeyli 45 thousand, Tuzla 7 thousand, Üsküdar 4 thousand and above damage occurred in the structure he's expected to arrive.
THE NEED FOR ISTANBUL HOUSING WILL ARISE FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET
- 35 thousand Avcılar, Başakşehir 13 thousand 500, Beylikdüzü 27 thousand, Çekmeköy 4 thousand, Esenyurt 67 thousand 410, Gaziosmanpaşa 14 thousand, Kadıköy 17 thousand, Maltepe 20 thousand, Pendik 28 thousand, Umraniye 16 thousand, Sarıyer 6 thousand 600, Sultangazi 10 thousand, Şile 900, Zeytinburnu 31 thousand households for the need for temporary housing will arise.